The socialist free-marketer

Oh the irony of ironies.  While News Corp is off calling Obama a socialist he is quietly pushing reforms Republicans have wanted for decades: Introducing competition to public schools via charters.

Housing recovery: The last act

I was discussing yesterday just what will happen to the bottoming out of the housing market after all the tax credits, foreclosure mitigation programs, and rock-bottom mortgage rates end.

I argued the small rush of newcomers seduced by a bottom, and the improving economy (and therefore more relaxed lending) might be enough to hold sales and prices steady.

But then I found out about the administration’s plan to use 4.2 billion of stimulus funds to buy foreclosed homes and turn them into federal subsidized housing.  By my quick calculation that’s about 40,000 houses at $100,000 each, which is about 6% of current inventory, a big enough share to support the market.

Seems like a perfect plan to me: Ensure sustained recovery, put foreclosed homes to use before they fall in disrepair, help people who did the worse through the crisis, and expand a helpful government program on the cheap.

This is not the 90s

The constant comparisons between the current healthcare push and the Clintons’ are superficial and misguided.  It is actually much more like last year’s presidential campaign.

First off, the Clintons wrote the bill behind closed doors and then sent it to congress to rubberstamp.  When it came time to sell it congress was MIA, so it was left to Hilary alone.  A lady driving around in a bus.  This time around there are 200+ salesmen with skin in the game, that know their respective constituents and what moves them.  That means every day we are going to have dozens of advocates on local radio, network TV, morning shows, op-eds, etc.

On top of that you’ve got the best explainer in chief the White House has ever seen, a great communications machine, and an organizing arm.

Now think back to the presidential campaign: Early on McCain made outrageous accusations and fabrications about Obama.  That gave him an initial bump, but strategically it was a huge mistake because it gave Obama months to disprove each and every one.  Independents started seeing through the lies and distortions, and by election day nothing McCain could throw stuck.

Same thing is happening now.  Lies, misrepresentations and innuendos are scaring the beejesus out of grandma, but after a couple weeks of further silliness, and disproving from proponents, this tactic will lose teeth.

In the end public support will be split very much as in the election: 100% of Fox viewers (i.e. Republicans) will hate it.  Independents will lean in favor and Democrats will all support it (even though many will have to swallow hard).  Only difference is that since the election Republicans have bled members.

Of course this isn’t a popular vote, so it remains to be seen what a 57/43 opinion split will do to move Blue Dogs and the Maine Twins.

Health reform is in this man’s hands

No, not Obama, not Baucus, not Grassley.  It’s Doug Elmendorf, CBO director.

Not once, or twice, but three times he has scored Congress proposals’ cost way higher than expected, which has resulted on damaging headlines. His rationale is that he is being conservative, and he will not credit any cost savings from changes and programs that aren’t proven.

Unfortunately there is little his predecessor Peter Orzag, now Obama’s OMB director, can do about it.

Krugman is crying foul, but a lot more pressure needs to be applied.

Let the fireworks begin

It’s been a quiet couple months in the domestic policy front, at least as far as people’s interest and perception.  Everyone’s tired of elections and bailouts.  MJ’s death, Iran’s crisis and Republican sex scandals took the spotlight.

But it’s about to get interesting as Obama comes off foreign travels, and goes on campaign mode for health reform.

And for those skeptic of reform passing, have they forgotten how the stimulus package was looking improvable, until he spent two weeks around the country pushing it to the front pages?  He will be naming and shaming the obstructionists and steamrolling the Blue Dogs.

To which I say, about time!

Treasury giving our warrants away

The Treasury’s plan for selling back TARP warrants was announced last weekend, and it looks bad.

Simon Johnson gets pretty close to calling it corrupt, and he is right: Even if individuals have the best intentions, a poorly laid system will corrupt them.  This is such a system.

If Obama goes through with it he will be making a big mistake: Giving Republicans amunition for the midterms and opening his administration to accusations of favoritism and backroom dealing, all while they could be getting a meaningful return and hoisting it as proof that the bank bailout was not all just a huge waste.

Democrats: The jobs are coming

Republicans are hammering Obama because the unemployment rate is about to go over 10% (Gingrich says the stress tests “have already failed” because they were based on a lower number), and many Democrats in Congress are getting anxious about a tough reelection if the numbers don’t get better soon (and therefore are less willing to stick their necks out for the president).

But my money is on much better numbers turning out for August, maybe even coming back under 9%.  Here’s why:

• Summer Jobs that typically are filled by high school students this year are going to be picked up by displaced workers, even though overqualified.  Teenagers unable to find jobs will have less money for games, clothes and to save for the Fall, but nevertheless they will not be claiming unemployment benefits.
• Stimulus package: Construction projects will finally start coming online.  Not the big rail and infrastructure projects to be sure, but definitely the smaller ones, such low-income housing weatherization and city roads.  Also tax incentives for energy efficient windows and solar energy have kicked in, and these retail type contracts are ramping up as banks start lending again and contractors start marketing them aggressively.  Then there is the undocumented worker factor: A sizable portion of construction work used to be done by illegal immigrants (20% ??), especially with small 5-10 person contractors.  Many of these workers have gone back to their homelands, so for every 9 legal construction workers that were laid off, about 10 will now be hired back for a comparable project.
• College grads: More than usual they will go into volunteer work (unpaid or sponsored by the expanded Americorps), delay graduation, pursue graduate degrees, travel for a wile if they have the resources, or stay with their parents (without collect unemployment).
• Chinese stimulus: We’ll start feeling the effect of Chinese projects on our durable orders numbers.

Neocons: Wrong then, wrong now, wrong always

The neocons continue to criticize prez Obama for not denouncing the Iranian regime more forcefully.

The president, of course, has been very clear about not wanting to make it about us, and give the mullahs a scapegoat, which would actually hinder the demonstrators.  Every non-neocon analyst agrees with that.  Even Iranian tweeters.  It makes absolute sense to me.  I mean, duh!

Now Zakaria points out that they took the exact same line against George H. W. Bush when the Soviet Union started cracking.  Of course, Bush’s cautios and measured approach worked and has been vindicated by history.

And how did their Iraq adventure turn out?  Wrong again.

The insane thing is that news media keeps bringing these idiots in to stomp over every serious and constructive discussion.  In fact they give them awards!

Why?  I don’t know, and I’m not going to start a conspiracy theory.  We will find out eventually.

But I know this: They speak for the Israeli right and for the military-industrial complex, not for us.

And America is worse for it.

Republicans shooting themselves on the foot (again) – Limbaugh: boycott GM

It’s been a while since I wrote one of these.  It just wasn’t fun anymore to watch them self-destruct.  But Limbaugh really merits one this week:

He calls on his dittoheads to boycott GM.

That’s, of course, preposterous and even treasonous, as we are talking about the jobs and lives of fellow Americans who happen to be in dire straits at the moment and who would have had it much worse had all of us (the taxpayer) not come to their rescue.

So this strikes me as just another nail in the GOP coffin as it will push Ohio, Indiana and other swing states even more towards the Democratic column.  That’s true even if Rush’s dreams come true (Obama’s policies fail miserably or there is another terrorist attack).

And all for what?  I see no upside for the party.  This won’t get them any additional votes, even in the South.  Maybe better ratings, if that.

In fact, if anything I think this will be helpful to GM (and the administration):

Say Rush gets 20% of his listeners (which total about 10-15% of American adults) on board with this.  That’s about a 2% loss of market for GM.  But every action has an opposite reaction, and if this gets even just 10% of the rest of the country to look at a GM car out of patriotism and solidarity (and perhaps disgust), that’s a gain of 9%.  Resulting in a net market gain of 7%

So thank you Rush!

Bring an end to this false newsman Murdoch

Another take on Glenn Beck’s laughable defense of his incitements to kill (I couldn’t help myself).  What if I said one night in my prime-time television show that…

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Rupert Murdoch, in spite of his public newsman image, is really the leader of a secret organization that seeks a New World Order.  His newspapers and TV channels control half of the world’s opinion and information, and he is working tirelessly to gain control of the rest.  His media outlets use well-documented Orwellian techniques to pit the uneducated masses against themselves while deflecting criticism away from those actually responsible for their pains.  And there is reason to believe his wife is a secret agent that gets orders directly from the Communist Party (she’s from China, duh).

Mr. Murdoch’s propaganda machine is just like the Nazis’.  I’m not saying he is one, but really what we saw in the Weimar Republic was a group that controlled the message spreading lies and innuendos to mobilize the poor and disaffected to hate and eventually kill others that weren’t like them, so I’m just saying….

His conglomerate also manages to pay no taxes.  Some have famously called him a traitor to his ‘supposed’ homeland (the U.S.)

But I tell you he would do well to return to whatever Australian little town he came from because I talk with our valiant soldiers in the field and they are sick of it, in fact I know if any of them found themselves in an elevator with Mr. Murdoch, Harry Reid and Osama Bin Laden, he would get shot twice, then Reid and Bin Laden would get strangled to death (ha ha ha ha).

And I’m not advocating that of course, that would mean breaking the law.  But we must bring an end to this false newsman Murdoch, and I won’t be surprised when it happens, ahem, I mean IF it happens: Whether you choose to ignore it or not, there’s no longer a question of if the pot is boiling. We can all see the pot is boiling. Now the question is how do we pull ourselves together to defend ourselves against a common enemy?

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So, would I get away with it?  Well, surely not if my target was Rupert, but anyone inconvenient to the GOP? Sure!

Such is the state of our ‘media’ that slander, innuendo, fearmongering and calls to violence pass as news at Fox and talk radio, and the rest of the media is too busy watching their profit margins to do the right thing and call them out.

What a charade.

P.S. Yes, obviously Beck didn’t make all these outrageous statements himself, but he’s made his fair share and he has the biggest horn of all, so he is perp #1.